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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP