Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Drew Brees (NO): +0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- NO defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- IND defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
IND
NO
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:32 FG NO (7:32) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. IND 0 – NO 3
- Q2 12:43 TD NO (12:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 0 IND 0 – NO 9
- Q2 06:18 TD NO (6:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-T.Smith for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 19, YAC 2 IND 0 – NO 16
- Q2 00:02 FG NO (:02) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. IND 0 – NO 20
- Q3 07:13 TD NO (7:13) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 IND 0 – NO 26
- Q3 00:45 TD NO (:45) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 7-T.Hill for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-90-G.Stewart was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 20, YAC 8 IND 0 – NO 33
- Q4 03:58 TD IND (3:58) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – NO 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(11:11) 8-R.Sanchez punts 4 yards to IND 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers. PENALTY on IND-20-J.Wilkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 43. NO 27-D.Washington deflected IND 8-R.Sanchez's punt.
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Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%
(7:32) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%
(4:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 29 yards to NO 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to NO 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25.
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Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:11) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to NO 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 12 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).
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Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%
(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Hilton (23-M.Lattimore).
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Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to NO 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 38 for 15 yards (58-B.Okereke).
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Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to IND 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
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Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to NO 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 32 for 12 yards (16-A.Dulin).
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Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 61%
(7:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to IND 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
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Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%
(5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at NO 29 for 11 yards (26-P.Williams) [91-T.Hendrickson]. Pass 8, YAC 3