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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.25 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.83 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP