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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to NO 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 32 for 12 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model