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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to NO 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 38 for 15 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model