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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 34 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to IND 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model