4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at NO 29 for 11 yards (26-P.Williams) [91-T.Hendrickson]. Pass 8, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model