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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 16:25 Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

TEN
38.6%
OAK
61.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.167 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.067 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 24
–
OAK 26
Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Derick Roberson LB Out Illness
Daren Bates LB Out Shoulder
Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Foot
LeShaun Sims CB Out Ankle
Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Hamstring

OAK

Trenton Brown T Out Pectoral
Hunter Renfrow WR Out Rib
Kyle Wilber LB Out Ankle
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Shoulder
Marquel Lee LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 42
–
OAK 21

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:49 TD LV (7:49) 33-D.Washington right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 03:27 TD TEN (3:27) 22-D.Henry left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 14:16 TD TEN (14:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Ferrell]. TEN 13 – OAK 7
  • Q2 10:50 TD LV (10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-R.Gafford for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – OAK 13
  • Q2 06:58 TD TEN (6:58) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – OAK 14
  • Q2 00:28 TD LV (:28) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – OAK 20
  • Q3 05:40 TD TEN (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – OAK 21
  • Q4 14:36 TD TEN (14:36) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 81-J.Smith for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 34 – OAK 21
  • Q4 13:25 TD TEN (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller to LV 48 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at LV 47. 55-J.Brown for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 41 – OAK 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (14:23) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TEN 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 45%

    (10:35) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-25-E.Harris.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:56) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 47 for 12 yards (51-D.Long).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%

    (8:11) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:28) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:53) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to LV 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.