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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 1
Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Tennessee Titans 42
What Actually Happened
(3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
The Three Options
GO
+3.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.07 EP
KICK
+1.84 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT
-0.59 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
