Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 90

Tennessee Titans 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

(8:56) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 47 for 12 yards (51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.61 EP
53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model