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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model