4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-25-E.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP