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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model