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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
47.0%
ARI
53.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.011 vs Devlin Hodges (PIT) +0.139 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Knee
James Conner RB Out Shoulder

ARI

Max Garcia G Questionable Toe
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Concussion
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Calf
Kevin Peterson CB Questionable Shoulder
A.Q. Shipley C Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:24 FG PIT (4:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 03:13 TD PIT (3:13) 4-A.Lee punts 60 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – ARI 0
  • Q2 11:19 FG ARI (11:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. PIT 10 – ARI 3
  • Q2 01:57 TD ARI (1:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-C.Clay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – ARI 9
  • Q2 00:04 FG PIT (:04) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – ARI 10
  • Q3 02:05 TD PIT (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – ARI 10
  • Q4 06:49 TD ARI (6:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – ARI 16
  • Q4 01:46 FG PIT (1:46) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 23 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:32) 4-A.Lee punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 22 for 1 yard (38-C.Banjo).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (4:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:13) 4-A.Lee punts 60 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:52) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (11:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 52%

    (7:11) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (:04) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:39) 4-J.Berry punts 69 yards to ARI 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 29 yards (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds left end ran ob at 50 for 9 yards (29-K.Kelly).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (12:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 87-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at PIT 0. Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 4-J.Berry. 4-J.Berry up the middle to PIT 32 for -8 yards (81-D.Daniels, 42-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (81-D.Daniels), RECOVERED by ARI-42-D.Gardeck at PIT 32.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (1:46) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [90-T.Watt] at ARI 46. 23-J.Haden to ARI 46 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).