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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model