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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds left end ran ob at 50 for 9 yards (29-K.Kelly).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP