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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP