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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model