Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(:52) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.41 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model