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Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

WAS
20.4%
CAR
79.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.296 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Kyle Allen (CAR) -0.016 vs Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.385 EPA/dropback
  • CAR offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

WAS 16
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 9 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

WAS

Ryan Kerrigan LB Out Concussion
Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Daron Payne DT Questionable Ankle
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Toe

CAR

Jordan Scarlett RB Out Knee
Greg Little T Doubtful Ankle
Eric Reid S Questionable Ankle
Taylor Moton T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 29
–
CAR 21

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:45 TD CAR (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 05:25 TD CAR (5:25) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – CAR 13
  • Q1 03:12 FG WAS (3:12) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – CAR 14
  • Q2 11:22 FG WAS (11:22) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – CAR 14
  • Q2 04:36 TD WAS (4:36) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 29-D.Guice up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – CAR 14
  • Q3 08:37 FG WAS (8:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 15 – CAR 14
  • Q4 09:11 TD WAS (9:11) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 29-D.Guice up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – CAR 14
  • Q4 04:31 TD WAS (4:31) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 28 – CAR 14
  • Q4 01:54 TD CAR (1:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 29 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (3:12) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (11:22) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:29) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 30 for 2 yards (56-J.Carter).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:46) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 23 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.White. PENALTY on CAR-18-D.White, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (5:34) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-S.Thomas.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 20 for 1 yard (56-J.Carter).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (8:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:48) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to CAR 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 18 for 16 yards (88-H.Hentges).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (3:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to WAS 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.White.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:01) 5-T.Way punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 33 for 5 yards (57-A.Smith).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to WAS 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 45 for 6 yards (56-J.Carter).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 19%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to WAS 36 for 15 yards (20-L.Collins).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.