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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 20 for 1 yard (56-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model