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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 18

Washington Commanders 12 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model