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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 33 for 5 yards (57-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model