Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 15

(7:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model