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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 79

Washington Commanders 15 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-T.Way punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model