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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Thursday 2019-11-28 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

CHI
47.6%
DET
52.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: David Blough (DET) -0.193 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.033 EPA/dropback (DET starting David Blough in place of Jeff Driskel)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22
–
DET 23
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CHI

Ben Braunecker TE Out Concussion
Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Bobby Massie T Out Ankle
Sherrick McManis S Out Groin
Adam Shaheen TE Out Foot
Danny Trevathan LB Out Elbow

DET

Jamal Agnew CB Out Ankle
Marvin Hall WR Out Foot
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Ribs
Matthew Stafford QB Out Hip
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Concussion
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Shoulder
Jeff Driskel QB Questionable Hamstring
Da'Shawn Hand DE Questionable Ankle
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Knee
Tracy Walker S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 24
–
DET 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:43 TD CHI (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 11:12 TD DET (11:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:16 TD DET (4:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short middle to 11-M.Jones Jr. for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 03:13 FG DET (3:13) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 7 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:25 FG CHI (:25) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – DET 17
  • Q3 04:51 TD CHI (4:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 49-J.Horsted for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – DET 17
  • Q4 10:51 FG DET (10:51) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 17 – DET 20
  • Q4 02:22 TD CHI (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – DET 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 22 for 3 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (2:45) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for no gain (30-D.Virgin).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to DET 40, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 45 for 5 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (:56) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-35-M.Killebrew.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

    (8:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Wims. Penalty on CHI, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (3:13) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (:25) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:59) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 22 for -4 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:27) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.92 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (10:51) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 34 for 6 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:48) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.