Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 60

Detroit Lions 17 – Chicago Bears 10

(9:27) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model