4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 61

Detroit Lions 20 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model