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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 12

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:25) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.82 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model