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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 5

Detroit Lions 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.92 EP