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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 49

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for no gain (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model