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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

HOU
44.5%
BAL
55.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU on 7 more days rest than BAL
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.199 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.158 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Back
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Shoulder

BAL

Michael Pierce DT Doubtful Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Chris Moore WR Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 7
–
BAL 41

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:24 TD BAL (9:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 11-S.Roberts for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 02:18 TD BAL (2:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BAL 13
  • Q3 11:40 TD BAL (11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 21-M.Ingram II for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BAL 20
  • Q3 06:56 FG BAL (6:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. HOU 0 – BAL 24
  • Q3 01:35 FG BAL (1:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. HOU 0 – BAL 27
  • Q4 09:57 TD BAL (9:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 21-M.Ingram II for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BAL 33
  • Q4 07:18 TD HOU (7:18) (No Huddle) 23-C.Hyde right guard for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BAL 34
  • Q4 04:12 TD BAL (4:12) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left guard for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – BAL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (10:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 68%

    (5:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins [99-M.Judon]. Houston challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:46.)

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 58%

    (2:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to HOU 39 for -2 yards (33-A.Moore).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 36%

    (:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to BAL 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 30 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 19%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills pushed ob at BAL 44 for 9 yards (24-M.Peters).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 84%

    (:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (6:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (1:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 76%

    (14:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron sacked at HOU 25 for -10 yards (54-T.Bowser).