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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 29

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(14:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model