4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 65

Houston Texans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 41

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron sacked at HOU 25 for -10 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.45 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model