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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model