4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 25

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.67 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model