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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 33

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins [99-M.Judon]. Houston challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:46.)

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model