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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CHI
36.0%
PHI
64.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

Isaiah Irving LB Out Quadricep

PHI

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
Jason Peters T Out Knee
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Foot
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 14
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 FG PHI (6:48) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. CHI 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 13:25 FG PHI (13:25) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. CHI 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 06:27 TD PHI (6:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 12
  • Q3 10:41 TD PHI (10:41) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 18
  • Q3 06:34 TD CHI (6:34) 32-D.Montgomery left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – PHI 19
  • Q4 12:46 TD CHI (12:46) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – PHI 19
  • Q4 00:29 FG PHI (:29) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. CHI 14 – PHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 47%

    (10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 25 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (6:48) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles. Penalty on PHI-35-B.Scott, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (13:25) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to PHI 38, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to PHI 37, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CHI 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 7 for 1 yard (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:34) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CHI 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 37 for 24 yards (1-C.Johnston; 47-N.Gerry). PENALTY on PHI-36-R.Ford, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 37.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (2:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CHI 42, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:23) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 30 for no gain (50-D.Riley).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 19%

    (8:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 9, ball out of bounds at PHI 11.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (:29) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.