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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 44

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model