Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CHI 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 37 for 24 yards (1-C.Johnston; 47-N.Gerry). PENALTY on PHI-36-R.Ford, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model