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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model