Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles. Penalty on PHI-35-B.Scott, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model