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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +1.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model