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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2019-10-28 · 20:15 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
18.4%
PIT
81.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.312 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than MIA
  • PIT offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA): +0.116 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 16
–
PIT 28
Projected margin: PIT by 12 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Andrew Donnal T Out Not Injury Related
Kenyan Drake RB Out Not Injury Related
Reshad Jones S Out Chest
Daniel Kilgore C Out Knee
Nik Needham CB Questionable Foot
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Chris Lammons CB Questionable Ankle
Avery Moss DE Questionable Ankle

PIT

Mark Barron LB Questionable Hamstring
Jaylen Samuels RB Questionable Knee
Ulysees Gilbert LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 14
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 TD MIA (10:58) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-A.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 01:41 TD MIA (1:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – PIT 0
  • Q2 02:49 FG PIT (2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIA 14 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:26 TD PIT (:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – PIT 9
  • Q3 03:23 TD PIT (3:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – PIT 16
  • Q4 12:05 TD PIT (12:05) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – PIT 23
  • Q4 05:37 FG PIT (5:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIA 14 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:13) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 19 for 2 yards (49-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

    (7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Washington (33-J.Wiltz).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:27) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 30 for 14 yards (24-B.Snell).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 53%

    (9:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-46-T.Pepper.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (11:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 38%

    (:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end to PIT 46 for 1 yard (23-J.Haden; 97-C.Heyward). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end to PIT 47 for no gain (23-J.Haden; 97-C.Heyward). Official measurement.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams to MIA 28 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (5:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at PIT 35 for -4 yards (97-C.Heyward).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to MIA 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams ran ob at MIA 29 for 19 yards (33-T.Edmunds).