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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams to MIA 28 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model