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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end to PIT 46 for 1 yard (23-J.Haden; 97-C.Heyward). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end to PIT 47 for no gain (23-J.Haden; 97-C.Heyward). Official measurement.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.54 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model