Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(14:13) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 19 for 2 yards (49-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model