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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-46-T.Pepper.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP