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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model