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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread 4.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CAR
39.1%
SF
60.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than SF
  • Wind 19 mph
  • CAR defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.162 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.152 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Cam Newton in place of Kyle Allen)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CAR

Greg Little T Out Concussion
Christian Miller LB Out Ankle
Cam Newton QB Out Foot

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Out Knee
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
Joe Staley T Doubtful Fibula
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Not Injury Related
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Levine Toilolo TE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13
–
SF 51

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:18 TD SF (9:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-E.Sanders for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 04:28 FG CAR (4:28) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – SF 7
  • Q1 01:15 TD SF (1:15) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – SF 13
  • Q2 12:48 TD SF (12:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at CAR 16. 16-yac CAR 3 – SF 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD SF (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – SF 27
  • Q3 12:48 SAF CAR (12:48) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (55-B.Irvin). CAR 5 – SF 27
  • Q3 11:24 TD CAR (11:24) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 11 – SF 27
  • Q3 07:20 TD SF (7:20) 19-D.Samuel right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – SF 33
  • Q3 00:32 TD SF (:32) 96-S.Day reported in as eligible. 26-T.Coleman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – SF 40
  • Q4 12:56 FG SF (12:56) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 13 – SF 44
  • Q4 06:24 TD SF (6:24) N.Mullens at QB. 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – SF 50

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 38 for 11 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk; 28-R.Gaulden).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (4:28) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 20%

    (6:32) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-B.Zylstra MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 7. 11-B.Zylstra to CAR 7 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 37 for 10 yards (18-D.White).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:05) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to SF 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to CAR 45 for 7 yards (18-D.White).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

    (3:56) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to CAR 2, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (12:56) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to SF 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 47 for 2 yards (39-R.Bonnafon).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 17%

    (9:51) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to CAR 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%

    (6:32) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 41 for -12 yards (98-R.Blair III).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:13) 20-J.Scarlett up the middle to CAR 41 for no gain (93-D.Jones).